Dollar dips on dovish Fed policy meeting minutes

The dollar took a dive on Wednesday after the minutes from the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting revealed monetary authorities unanimously voted to scrap a threshold that would have triggered interest-rate hikes.
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors unanimously voted to scrap a threshold at which interest rates would rise once the unemployment rate hits 6.5%, according to the minutes of the Fed's March policy meeting.
In the past, the Fed had indicated rates could rise when the unemployment rate hits or approaches 6.5% provided that figure accompanied a 2.5% inflation rate.
The dollar dropped on the news, as Fed Chair Janet Yellen stating that policy must remain accommodative for some time to come.

Pound hits 3-week highs vs. dollar after U.K. data

The pound rose to more than three-week highs against the dollar on Tuesday after data showed that U.K. industrial output increased at the fastest pace since June 2013.
GBP/USD hit session highs of 1.6713, the strongest level since March 13 and was last up 0.55% to 1.6699.

Cable was likely to find support at 1.6601, the session low and resistance at 1.6750.
Manufacturing output jumped by 1.0% month-on-month in February, the biggest rise since September 2013, and the third successive monthly increase, and was 3.8% higher on a year-over-year basis.


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Risk Disclaimer
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.

Dollar mixed vs rivals as markets eye U.S. jobs data

The dollar was mixed against the other major currencies on Friday, as markets were jittery ahead of the release of a highly-anticipated U.S. nonfarm payrolls report later in the trading session.

The dollar edged higher against the euro, with EUR/USD down 0.11% to 1.3705.

Official data earlier showed that German factory orders rose rose 0.6% in February, exceeding expectations for a 0.1% gain. Factory orders in January were revised down to a 0.1% increase from a previously estimated 1.2% rise.

But the single currency remained under pressure after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi played down the risk of deflation in the euro zone on Thursday, but added that the bank has not ruled out further policy action, including quantitative easing.

The comments came after the central bank left rates on hold at a record low 0.25%.

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Risk Disclaimer
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.

Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: March 31 - April 4

The euro inched higher against the dollar on Friday, pulling back from one-month lows as market sentiment was bolstered by indications that China is prepared to do more to shore up the cooling economy.
EUR/USD edged up 0.07% to settle at 1.3752, recovering from lows of 1.3702. The pair ended the week down 0.61%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.3702 and resistance
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Risk Disclaimer
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Gold: Yellow Metal Continues To Shine In The Asian Trading Hours

Gold prices traded higher by 0.22% against the USD in the 24 hour period ending 23:00GMT, at 1331.15 per ounce, rebounding from its initial losses, arising from a stronger US Dollar.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, Gold is trading at 1333.22, 0.16% higher from yesterday’s close, amid speculation that the recent weakness in gold prices would spur physical demand.

Gold is expected to find support at 1323.98, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1314.75. Gold is expected to find its first resistance at 1339.04, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1344.87.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside for the moment. At this point, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. Thus, we'd still watch out for strong support from 1.3642 to bring rebound. Above 1.3844 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3966. However, we'd also like to point out the possibility that rise from 1.2755 could have completed with five waves up to 1.3966. Break of 1.3642 will at least confirm near term reversal and target 1.3476 support next.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 is viewed as a corrective pattern. The choppy rise from 1.2042 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. Such rally is having a corrective look and upside momentum is not too convincing. Thus, while further rise should be seen in medium term, we'd expect strong resistance from 100% projection of 1.2042 to 1.3710 from 1.2755 at 1.4423. to limit upside and bring reversal. Nonetheless, break of 1.3476 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish.

Gold prices rebound in Asian trade, Japan markets shut for holiday

Gold prices gained in Asia Friday on a rebound after an overnight decline on specualtion that U.S. rate hikes will take place around the first half of 2015 based on comments Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen made on Wednesday.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery traded at $1,332.90 a troy ounce, up 0.18%, after hitting an overnight session low of $1,321.10 and off a high of $1,335.00.
The Fed is currently buying $55 billion in Treasury and mortgage debt a month, and expectations for the monetary authority to taper that figure gradually and close the program by fall followed by rate hikes in 2015 strengthened the dollar against gold.
The Department of Labor reported that the number of people filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending March 15 rose by 5,000 to 320,000 from the previous week’s total of 315,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 10,000 last week.

U.S. initial jobless claims rise by 5,000 last week to 320,000

In a report, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending March 15 rose by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 320,000 from the previous week’s total of 315,000.
Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 10,000 to 325,000 last week.
Continuing jobless claims in the week ended March 8 rose to 2.889 million from 2.848 million in the preceding week. Analysts had expected continuing claims to increase to 2.868 million.
The four-week moving average was 327,000, a decline of 3,500 from the previous week’s total of 330,500. The monthly average is seen as a more accurate gauge of labor trends because it reduces volatility in the week-to-week data.

What is FOMC; How Many Time Does It Comes in a Year?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the monetary policy making body of the Federal Reserve System. The FOMC is composed of 12 members the seven members of the Board of Governors and five of the 12 Reserve Bank presidents.
The Chairman of the Board of Governors serves as the Chairman of the FOMC; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is a permanent member of the Committee and serves as the Vice Chairman of the Committee.
The presidents of the other Reserve Banks fill the remaining four voting positions on the FOMC on a rotating basis. All of the Reserve Bank presidents, including those who are not voting members, attend FOMC meetings, participate in the discussions, and contribute to the assessment of the economy and policy options.

The FOMC schedules eight meetings per year, one about every six weeks or so. The Committee may also hold unscheduled meetings as necessary to review economic and financial developments.

The FOMC issues a policy statement following each regular meeting that summarizes the Committee's economic outlook and the policy decision at that meeting.
Four times per year the Chairman holds a press briefing after the FOMC meeting to present the FOMC's current economic projections and to provide additional context for the FOMC's policy decisions.
A full set of minutes for each FOMC meeting is published three weeks after the conclusion of each regular meeting, and complete transcripts of FOMC meetings are published five years after the meeting.

Australian Dollar Facing Conflicting Domestic

 The Australian Dollar launched a brisk recovery last week, pushing to the highest level in three months against its US counterpart. While the RBA monetary policy announcement repeated the now-familiar status quo, a round of supportive economic data proved to be a potent catalyst. The central bank once again argued in favor of a sustained period of stability in monetary policy. That has re-framed speculation to focus on which direction rates are likely to go once that period runs its course, and last week’s news-flow seemed to argue for tightening.
The fourth-quarter GDP report topped economists’ forecasts, showing the year-on-year growth rate accelerated to 2.8 percent and marked the highest reading since the three months through December 2012. Meanwhile, retail sales unexpectedly jumped 1.2 percent in January to yield the largest increase in 11 months.
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What To Expect From NFP?

The following are the expectations for the US February jobs report by the economists at Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Nomura, and other leading banks GS: US Non-Farm Payrolls: 125K, US Unemployment Rate: 6.5%. BofA: We expect another sluggish jobs report in February with nonfarm payroll growth of 115,000. We forecast the unemployment rate to hold steady at 6.6%, but see risk of a decline from falling labor force participation. Barclays: After two months of soft payroll growth, we expect the headline NFP to grow by 150K and the unemployment rate to edge lower to 6.5% (consensus: 150K, 6.6%).....CLICK HERE for full story.

US Dollar Breaks Critical Support, SPX 500 Keeps Going Higher

 US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke below rising trend line set from September 2012, hinting the medium-term trend has changed gears. Prices are testing initial support at 10525, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that targeting the 50% level at 10497. Alternatively, a reversal back above the trend line (now at 10563) eyes the February 27 high at 10615.

P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing resistance at 1883.80 marked b the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion and a rising channel top. A break above this boundary exposes the 50% level at 1899.20. Alternatively, a reversal below support at 1864.80, the 23.6% Fib, aims for the channel bottom at 1853.10.

Employers in the U.S. Probably Added More workers to Payrolls

Employers in the U.S. probably hired more workers in February than a month earlier, showing companies were confident demand will bounce back from a weather-induced slowdown, economists project a report will show today.

Payrolls increased 149,000 last month after a 113,000 gain in January, according to the median forecast of 92 economists in a Bloomberg survey ahead of figures from the Labor Department. The jobless rate held at 6.6 percent, the lowest since 2008, the survey also showed.

Dollar Gains vs Yen After Payrolls Data Disappoints

The U.S. dollar pared gains against the yen on Wednesday, following the release of disappointing U.S. private sector payrolls data.

This mornings ADP nonfarm payrolls data showed that the U.S. private sector added 139,000 jobs in February, well below expectations for an increase of 160,000.

And there was more bad news later on when the Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing purchasing manager’s index fell to a 43-month low of 51.6 last month from 54.0 in January. Confounding expectations for a fall to 53.5 in February.

The data caused the dollar to give-up ground against the Japanese yen which suffered in risk-off trading after tensions eased in the standoff between Ukraine and Russia.

USD/JPY ended the session up 0.10% at 102.32, down from a high of 102.55 earlier.

While the euro trimmed losses against the dollar after this mornings data. The single currency couldn’t find any friends this morning, despite data showing that euro zone private sector activity grew more rapidly than initially estimated in February, expanding at the fastest pace since June 2011.

Investors remain wary of this weeks European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday amid concerns that the bank could tighten monetary policy.

EUR/USD ended the session down 0.03% at 1.3738, up from a low of 1.3707 earlier.

The pound also found support this morning after official data showed that activity in the U.K. service sector dipped in February, but growth remained robust.

GBP/USD ended the session up 0.40% at 1.6731.

GBPUSD at Risk, NFPs The Key Resistance 1.6754

We noted last month that the “1.6722/54 represents a significant region of resistance and is defined by multiple longer-term key Fibonacci levels and the 2011 high. The pair has continued to respect this barrier on a close basis with the high close coming in exactly at 1.6742. We’ll be looking for the weekly/monthly opening ranges to form below this threshold with a break of said range likely to offer further guidance on a near-term bias heading into March trade.”





The pair has continued to respect this region since the start of March trade with a clean weekly opening range now in view. Our immediate focus is against the 1.6754/58 resistance level which comes in just above the weekly high with a move/close below the 1.6653/58 support structure shifting our bias to the short side. Such a scenario would suggest that a more significant correction off the February high is under way. That said, it’s important to note that the broader trend remains weighted to the topside and a breach/close above 1.6758 puts long-side right back into play.

Australian Dollar Soars as Strong Data Reaffirms RBA’s Guidance

 The AUD/USD soared after Australia reported that Retail Sales in January came in at 1.2 percent (month on month), exceeding forecasts of 0.4 percent, and 0.7 percent in December. Moreover, January’s Trade Balance surplus widened to 1,433 million, beating forecasts of 100 million, and improving upon a reading 591 million in December.

The Aussie jumped 52 pips from 0.8979 to 0.9032, advancing well past the psychological level of US 90 cents when the data crossed the wires. This positive data may tip the scales for the market's forecast for the next RBA move to be a hike rather than a cut. For a high-yield currency like the Aussie, that is a key - if distant - benefit.